🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.