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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."